300 Win Club - Discussion and Poll!

[NewYorkSC]

I love baseball statistics. I may do one for hits and homeruns and some other stats if this takes off. I was looking at Randy Johnson who I feel has a small, but realistic shot at 300 wins in the next 2 seasons and thinking about the current leaderboards for wins. The game doesn't do this for you on the history page so I compiled the list.

Here are your current, in my opinion, pitchers with realistic shots at 300 wins. I did not consider anyone with under 150 wins by age 30, anyone without 125 wins by age 27 and anyone without 200 wins by age 32.

Here is the list. Bolded name means they made it to 300 wins IRL. I've also added their real life totals below to compare their real version to the sim version. Some of these guys have had the fortune in our sim to have really good offenses around them (Kevin Appier for certain).

Current Wins Leaders
1. Roger Clemens - 325 (40, Texas Rangers)
2. Randy Johnson - 264 (39, New York Yankees)
3. Kevin Appier - 256 (35, KC Royals)
4. Greg Maddux - 252 (36, Detroit Tigers)
5. Tom Glavine - 231 (36, Colorado Rockies)
  Pedro Martinez - 231 (31, St. Louis Cardinals)
7. Jamie Moyer - 230 (40, San Diego Padres)
8. Kenny Rogers - 223 (38, Oakland A's)
  Curt Schilling - 223 (36, LA Dodgers)
10. Kevin Brown - 222 (37, Florida Marlins)
11. John Smoltz - 220 (35, KC Royals)
12. David Wells - 220 (39, Free Agent)
13. Mike Mussina - 217 (34, New York Yankees)
14. John Smiley - 216 (37, Free Agent)
15. Alex Fernandez - 201 (33, Cleveland Indians)

* Just outside the 200 win club: Jim Abbott (35, Angels, 199), Darryl Kile (34, Indians, 195), Denny Neagle (34, Free Agent, 192), Andy Benes (35, Free Agent, 190)


The youngest pitchers with most wins for their age and a shot at 300:

1. Andy Pettitte - 160 (30, Houston Astros)
2. Aaron Sele - 158 (32, New York Yankees)
3. Mike Hampton - 157 (30, Houston Astros)
4. Brad Radke - 143 (30, Minnesota Twins)
5. Kevin Millwood - 125 (27, Colorado Rockies)
  Chris Carpenter - 125 (27, Montreal Expos)

Real Life Win Totals
HOW THESE PITCHERS FINISHED IN REAL LIFE

Career Major League win totals for every pitcher named in the simulation


Four of the pitchers reached the historic 300-win milestone. The others are listed in descending order by their actual MLB regular-season win totals.

THE 300-WIN CLUB

1. Greg Maddux — 355 wins
2. Roger Clemens — 354 wins
3. Tom Glavine — 305 wins
4. Randy Johnson — 303 wins

ALL OTHER PITCHERS

5. Mike Mussina — 270 wins
6. Jamie Moyer — 269 wins
7. Andy Pettitte — 256 wins
8. David Wells — 239 wins
9. Pedro Martínez — 219 wins
10. Kenny Rogers — 219 wins
11. Curt Schilling — 216 wins
12. John Smoltz — 213 wins
13. Kevin Brown — 211 wins
14. Kevin Appier — 169 wins
15. Kevin Millwood — 169 wins
16. Andy Benes — 155 wins
17. Aaron Sele — 148 wins
18. Mike Hampton — 148 wins
19. Brad Radke — 148 wins
20. Chris Carpenter — 144 wins
21. Darryl Kile — 133 wins
22. John Smiley — 126 wins
23. Denny Neagle — 124 wins
24. Alex Fernandez — 107 wins
25. Jim Abbott — 87 wins

KEY TAKEAWAY

Only four of the 25 pitchers reached 300 wins. Mike Mussina (270) and Jamie Moyer (269) came closest among the rest.

Source: Baseball-Reference career wins leaderboard. Totals reflect MLB regular-season pitching wins.

Now the question, in our sim, who do you have making it to 300 wins and why?

[Marbs]

butt sniffer clause the dummy trying to be a good boy for some rigged sims.

[Gambit]

Of this list I'd guess these will make it to 300.

1. Randy Johnson, he plays for the Yanks duh! Hes gonna win games.
2. Greg Maddux, he just needs 12 wins a season the next 4 to make it.
3. Pedro Martinez, 231 at 31? Unless he gets injured it's a given. May even end up at 350 wins.
4. Mike Mussina, he is right on the line but playing for the Yankees means he is going to rack up wins quick. he won 28!!! last year.
5. Andy Pettite, young and over halfway there.
6. Mike Hampton, same.


These are maybes. They didn't win enough in their youth to be locks trapped on so/so teams. But they still have a shot.
1. Tom Glavine - 231 (36, Colorado Rockies)
2. Curt Schilling - 223 (36, LA Dodgers)
3. John Smoltz - 220 (35, KC Royals)

[DannyG]

I like your list Gambit. The only one I am iffy on is Mike Hampton. He benefitted from being on the Yankees for 4 years where he posted win records of 18/19/19/19. Before that he was lucky to break 13. I figure he will go back to that. What other team can you have a 4.94 ERA and win 19 games? Not many.

I think Hampton fizzles out but still gets closer to 300 than he ever should have. Probably still gets to 240-250.

The only one you left off I'd add is Kevin Appier. The Royals are sneaky good and have consistently pushed to 90 wins. He has a good offense and defense around him. The math is the same as Maddux. 12 wins a season until age 40 and he's there. I think he makes it.

Other than that, I agree.

[NewYorkSC]

A lot of these guys didn't make it to 300 but injuries claimed a lot of them. Smoltz missed 3 years in his prime.

Kevin Appier is probably the best pitcher that didn't get close IRL. He was an absolute stud in his prime posting 115 wins in 6 seasons. Then he tore his flexor tendon not once, not twice, but three times and missed large chunks of what should have been his best seasons. He lost 7 mph velocity on his pitches and it just killed his career.

He had the talent for 300 wins just not the durability.

That is what is kind of neat about this sim you can see 'what if.' However, it may be too lenient on the injury front. Most of the guys in my OP have been injury free so far. Which isn't really realistic.

[Doug4Trump]

The ones that make it will make it. YW.